Technology, Engineering & Agriculture
Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologiesâ¬"Report 2
by Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council
Description
The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing. The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.
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http://www.nap.edu/12834
National Academies Press
The National Academies Press (NAP) publish the reports of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. They published more than 200 books a year on a wide range of topics.
View all titlesBibliographic Information
- Publisher National Academies Press
- Publication Date August 2010
- Orginal LanguageEnglish
- ISBN/Identifier 9780309149044
- Publication Country or regionUnited States
- FormatPaperback
- Primary Price 21 USD
- Pages341
- ReadershipProfessional and scholarly
- Publish StatusPublished
- Dimensions11 x 8.5 inches
- Biblio NotesRelated Digital edition - 9780309149051 . Copyright year 2010.
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