William A. Byrd is a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). M. Khalid Payenda is senior adviser to Afghanistan’s Minister of Finance and leads the Macro-Fiscal Performance Department in the Ministry of Finance. Both authors are economists and have been following the Afghan economy and scal and revenue developments for many years. Numbers presented and analyzed in this brief are based on Ministry of Finance data and the authors’ calculations, except where otherwise indicated. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, to the Ministry of Finance, or to USIP, which does not take policy positions.